Study Shows Windfall Profits Tax
Could Shave 20% Off Your Oil Stocks
There's a study out by Robert Shapiro and Nam Pham on a "windfall profits" tax and the effect on the energy stocks in your portfolio. It's from 2006, but Hillary Clinton is campaigning on this Carter-era idea. The news isn't pretty:
Higher oil prices increase not only the oil company revenues claimed by such a tax, but also the value of the oil company stocks held by shareholders (including public pension funds), by roughly 4 percent a year (at $45 per-barrel oil) to 20 percent a year (at $70 per-barrel oil).
Considering that we're likely to be in the $70-plus range per barrel of oil for the forseeable future, that 20% drop in oil stocks is probably conservative.

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